Spotlight
National population projections: 2022-based
What's in the bulletin?
- Over the 10 years between mid-2022 and mid-2032, the population of the UK is projected to increase by 4.9 million (7.3%) from an estimated 67.6 million to 72.5 million; this increase is projected to arise from net migration of 4.9 million compared with 6.8 million births and 6.8 million deaths.
- The population projections for the UK are based on an assumption of long-term net international migration of 340,000 per year from year ending mid-2028 onwards; there is always uncertainty in estimates and projections of migration, meaning actual levels of future migration and resulting population may be higher or lower than those assumed in these projections.
- Between mid-2022 to mid-2032, it is projected that there will be a similar number of deaths and births in the UK; although births are projected to increase slightly, deaths are projected to rise because of the relatively large number of people born in the post-World War 2 period reaching older ages.
Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based
What's in the bulletin?
- The population of England is projected to increase by 6.4% between mid-2022 and mid-2032 compared with 5.9% for the UK.
- Between mid-2022 and mid-2032 the population is projected to increase across all regions as well as in 302 of the 309 local authorities in England (based on 2021 boundaries).
- Tower Hamlets is projected to be the fastest growing local authority between mid-2022 and mid-2032, with a 20.4% projected population increase (excludes the City of London).
Datasets related to Population projections
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2020-based interim national population projections: year ending June 2022 estimated international migration variant
2020-based interim national population projections with assumptions of possible future international migration that reflect estimates of international migration to year ending June 2022. The potential future population size of the UK, Great Britain, England and Wales, England, Scotland and Wales. These statistics are widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions. Not national statistics.
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2021 and 2022-based national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Population projections for regions by five-year age groups and sex, England
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for regions in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.
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Population projections for local authorities by five-year age groups and sex, England
Population figures over a 25-year period, by five-year age groups and sex for local authorities in England. 2022-based datasets are the latest projection.
Publications related to Population projections
Statistical bulletins
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National population projections: 2022-based
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. These statistics are widely used in planning, including fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
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Subnational population projections for England: 2022-based
Population projections by English local authorities and health geographies. These statistics are used in planning, health and education.
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Household projections for England: 2018-based
Indication of the future number of households in England and its regions and local authorities. Used for planning in areas such as housing and social care.
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Variant subnational population projections for England: 2016-based
2016-based variant subnational population projections, including a variant based on a 10-year trend of migration data and variants with higher and lower levels of net international migration.
Articles
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Prospective new method for setting mortality assumptions for national population projections, UK
User engagement on a prospective model-based approach for producing mortality projections for use in national population projections (NPPs).
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Future plans for research on population estimates and projections
Outline of our work plan to address the recommendations in the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) review of ONS population estimates and projections.
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National and subnational population projections – user feedback
Overview of responses to our invitation to provide feedback on the future timescales for national population projections (NPPs) and subnational population projections (SNPPs) for the UK.
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National and subnational population projections - update on our invitation for user feedback
An update on the recent invitation to users to provide feedback on the future timescales for national and subnational population projections for the UK.
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Subnational population projections, research report on variant projections
This article outlines the research carried out on variant subnational population projections. It reports on the experimental work that has produced a number of variants as a “proof of concept”, and seeks feedback to inform future development.
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UK population pyramid interactive
Use our interactive population pyramid to find out more about how the demographics of your local area compare with others across the country.
Methodology related to Population projections
Find, compare and visualise statistics about places within the United Kingdom.